Here are some of our top-line election results and analysis on the election’s impact on the arts. Check out the 2014 Post-Election Impact Analysis webinar materials here.
FEDERAL:
Republicans swept the Senate last night, successfully holding all of their GOP seats and winning seven to nine new Senate seats to win back control of the Senate. Senate GOP membership in the Senate will increase from 45 to 52 or perhaps even 54. With this large of a shift, we may see more changes in committee composition and chairmanships, which will be effective January 2015. For the Senate Interior Appropriations Subcommittee—which is in charge of federal funding levels for the NEA, NEH, Smithsonian, Kennedy Center, and others—Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is likely to emerge as chairman with Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI), who overwhelmingly won re-election, as ranking democrat. Both senators are pro-arts, and while we’re not likely to see a major change in support from this subcommittee, we don’t know if they will receive instructions otherwise from the new presumptive controlling majority leader, Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who won his re-election with a larger than expected commanding margin of 56 percent.
Republicans also increased their control of the House. Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA) will remain as chair of the House Interior Appropriations Subcommittee—which is in charge of federal funding levels for the NEA, NEH, Smithsonian, Kennedy Center, and others—and the new ranking democrat of that subcommittee will be Rep. Betty McCollum (D-MN), following the retirement of Rep. Jim Moran (D-VA). Both of these pro-arts incumbents received campaign support from the Arts Action Fund PAC and won their re-elections handily, with more than 60 percent of the vote. There will be new chairs for both the House Education Appropriations Subcommittee and the House Ways & Means Committee, but they have not been confirmed yet because the previous Republican Chairmen, Jack Kingston (R-GA) and Dave Camp (R-MI), did not run for re-election.
Approximately 84 percent of House members to the Congressional Arts Caucus won their re-elections. Longtime Caucus Co-Chair Louise Slaughter (D-NY) faced a surprising nail-biter in her upstate district, but the race was finally called in her favor on November 12. Additionally, 70 percent of Senate members in the Senate Cultural Caucus won their re-elections, including co-chair Senator Mike Enzi (R-WY), after fighting off a difficult primary opponent earlier in the year.
With both the Senate and House in GOP control, it will either lead to major standoffs with the White House or perhaps more conciliation. Either way, look for the GOP to advance a tax extenders bill (which could impact nonprofits in a positive way), an energy bill, and attempts to repeal portions of the national healthcare law (possible negative impact on individual artists and small nonprofits). You can also expect to see President Obama advance minimum wage increases (especially since five of five state ballot initiatives passed on this issue last night) and immigration reform through the executive branch if this new Congress blocks the legislative opportunities. We’re likely to see the current federal budget be quickly extended, so that the new Congress can focus on the following year’s budget priorities. This could have the biggest negative impact on support for the arts and arts education.
STATE:
Congratulations to the citizens of Rhode Island for passing a $35 million bond with 60.5 percent of the vote to support various cultural facilities and the Rhode Island State Council on the Arts.
Except for Pennsylvania and Alaska (where Independent candidate Bill Walker came from behind to defeat incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell), Republicans were highly successful in winning their gubernatorial re-elections across the country and managed to win in some surprisingly blue and purple states, including Maryland, Massachusetts, Arkansas, and Illinois. Gov. Sam Brownback (R-KS) also won his re-election by four percent. You may recall, he had eliminated the state arts commission after he was first elected four years ago.
One of the big winners last night was someone who wasn’t even up for election this year. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie had campaigned extensively and raised millions of dollars to help GOP gubernatorial candidates across the country win their campaigns. He continues to be referred to as a rising potential GOP presidential candidate for 2016; we can expect to see presidential campaigns begin in earnest within the next few months.
LOCAL:
There weren’t a lot of local elections in 2014, but there was at least one local education and arts ballot referendum in Charlotte/Mecklenburg County in North Carolina. Unfortunately, this referendum was not approved, having received only 39 percent of the vote.
Note: This article continues to be updated as more election results come in.